DUBAI/MUMBAI — Dubai off-plan property has more than doubled in value for rupee-based investors since 2020, outpacing new homes in Mumbai, as a weaker rupee added to gains that are otherwise level in local currency.
Measured in rupees, Dubai’s median off-plan price per square foot rose 111% between 2020 and mid-2026, against 68% for Mumbai, according to an Invest Dubai Today analysis of data from fäm Properties, Anarock and published exchange rates. In each city’s own currency, Dubai rose 66% and Mumbai 68%.
The gap matters for Indian buyers comparing Dubai vs Mumbai property prices. It has lifted the paper gains of those who bought in Dubai early and raised the cost for those buying now.
Dubai vs Mumbai property prices in rupees: 111% against 68%
fäm Properties, which compiles Dubai Land Department sales records, put the median price for off-plan and developer sales at AED 1,066 per square foot in 2020 and AED 1,774 in the first half of 2026. The median is the middle price of all deals, which limits the pull of a handful of luxury sales.
Converted at each year’s average exchange rate, the Dubai median rose from 21,555 rupees per square foot to 45,412 rupees. Anarock’s average quoted price for new homes in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) rose from 10,610 rupees to 17,780 rupees over the same period. The analysis compares price changes only, since the two series use different measures and currencies.
Dirham’s 27% rise against the rupee added 45 points
The UAE dirham is pegged at 3.6725 to the US dollar, so it tracks the dollar against the rupee. The rupee averaged 74.26 per dollar in 2020 and about 94 so far in 2026, data from Pound Sterling Live shows. One dirham cost 20.22 rupees in 2020 and about 25.60 rupees this year, a rise of 27%.
Combined with the 66% rise in dirham prices, the currency move produced the 111% gain in rupees, meaning the exchange rate accounted for about 45 percentage points. Over the past two years the currency contributed more than the market did: the dirham gained about 12% against the rupee while the off-plan median rose about 10%.
In local currency, Dubai up 66% and Mumbai up 68%
Without the currency effect, the two markets ended level but took different routes. Dubai’s off-plan median jumped 20% in 2022 as buyers returned after the pandemic. Mumbai prices rose 7% that year.
Mumbai then caught up. Anarock data shows MMR prices rose about 15% in 2023 and 21% in 2024, reaching 16,600 rupees per square foot by December 2024. Dubai rose about 10% in each of those years. Measured in rupees, Dubai stayed ahead of Mumbai in every year from 2022.
2026: Dubai up 3.2% in dirhams, 11% in rupees
Price growth has slowed in both cities. Dubai’s off-plan median rose 3.2% from 2025 to the first half of 2026, while MMR prices rose 4% in the year to the June quarter. fäm Properties said Dubai sales volumes fell 28% year on year in the second quarter while prices held.
In rupees, the same Dubai square foot is up about 11% this year, most of it from the exchange rate. Anarock chairman Anuj Puri said in December that housing price growth had “tapered down from double digits in previous years to single digits”. The consultancy’s first-quarter report said buyers of Indian origin living in the Middle East had deferred purchases during the regional conflict.
Dubai’s 111,828-unit launch surplus, rupee risk weigh on outlook
Supply is the main market risk for Dubai vs Mumbai property prices. Dubai developers launched 157,011 homes in 2025 and delivered 45,183, fäm data shows, leaving 111,828 more units launched than completed. Investors planning to sell or rent at handover may face more competing stock. In Mumbai, Anarock counted 186,450 unsold homes at the end of March, up 4% from a year earlier.
The currency gain may not repeat. If the rupee stabilises or strengthens against the dollar, rupee returns on Dubai property will track dirham prices, which are rising about 3% a year. The figures measure price change only and exclude purchase fees, rental income and tax.
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