Dubai, UAE — Dubai’s commercial real estate sector, which posted AED 15.5 billion in sales over the first 11 months of 2025 — up 77.9% from last year — faces a structural shift toward a two-tier office market by 2028, according to fäm Properties CEO Firs Al Msaddi. Offices led with AED 11.2 billion across 4,012 transactions, per DXB Interact data, though the sector lags residential’s AED 624.1 billion record.
Grade A Supply to Reshape Market
“Since 2008, Dubai has not seen a real new generation of office buildings,” Al Msaddi said, contrasting it with residential’s post-crisis upgrade to luxury designs and codes. New Grade A offices begin handover from 2028, he added, widening the gap with older stock.
“That will be the moment of truth, as we see how secondary offices perform when tenants finally have modern, efficient, architecturally relevant options. The gap between old and new will widen, and the entire commercial sector will reprice itself around quality,” Al Msaddi said.
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This aligns with Knight Frank’s H1 2025 findings of 207% growth in high-value office sales and Cushman & Wakefield’s forecast of shortages through 2027-28 despite doubled supply, with occupancy at 94%. CBRE’s Q3 review cites 19% rent hikes from 94-97% occupancy.
Vision Tower Signals Premium Demand
Business Bay’s Vision Tower exemplifies the trend. “It has consistently outperformed the market because it attracts real, established corporates. The smallest unit is a half-floor, which naturally filters for serious companies, and the performance of that building tells you exactly how strong true Grade A demand really is,” Al Msaddi said.
Knight Frank notes Business Bay prices surpassing AED 2,000 per sq ft, up 21% since 2020.
2025 Commercial Breakdown
| Type | Value (AED) | Volume |
| Office | 11.2B | 4,012 |
| Shop | 3.8B | 1,321 |
| Showrooms | 70.2M | 13 |
| Warehouse | 24.4M | 7 |
Context for Indian Investors
Dubai’s office surge fits broader appeal for Indians, who remitted USD 250,000 via LRS for 6-9% yields, tax-free gains and Golden Visas on AED 2M+ buys. Amid off-plan residential booms and visa reforms, Grade A offices diversify portfolios with proximity for oversight.
Also read: OMNIYAT Launches LUMENA ALTA, Dubai’s Tallest Luxury Commercial Tower
The Dubai office market two-tier split will premiumize new builds amid supply lags, per analysts, favoring early investors — especially Indians seeking residency and returns beating domestic options.
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